NFL Picks and Predictions

The 2009 NFL preseason is off and running and things are beginning to get interesting.  Unfortuantely, my week one NFL preseason predictions were a mediocre 9-8.  Call it rust, or call it the unpredicatable nature of NFL preseason picking.  Whatever the case, I am just getting warmed up.  Things will get better.  Without further ado, lets get into the week two NFL preseason predictions and get on with the football:

THUR, AUG 20

Cincinnati at New England - This game is one that should really be a scoring fest.  I expect that the Bengals are going to continue to try to see if Palmer is truly ready, and they might give him a few extra snaps.  The Pats are feeling awfully good about Brady and the offense after that first week.  Preseason or regular season, this one is New England all the way.

Winner – New England Patriots

Philadelphia at Indianapolis - The Eagles now have Michael Vick on board, and they surely will be tempted to sneak him in a time or two to see what he might have.  That would likely be a mistake, as he barely has taken a snap in practice.  The Colts are trying to figure out why they stunk so bad last week.  The Eagles will win this one.

Winner – Philadelphia Eagles

FRI, AUG 21

Tennessee at Dallas – The Cowboys looked about as bad as a team can look in the preseason last week, and this week I expect them to bounce back.  The Titans have been great in the preseason, but they will lose in Big D.

Winner – Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta at St. Louis – Could things get any worse for Marc Bulger and the Rams?  First they lose Donnie Avery, and now they lose Marc Bulger.  Atlanta will take advantage in this NFL matchup.

Winner – Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City at Minnesota - The Chiefs are going up agains the Minnesota Favres?  Vikings, I mean.  Brett Favre in Minnesota has the whole NFL shook up.  I think it might be a big mistake in the long run.  We will see.  The Vikings win this one going away, however.

Winner – Minnesota Vikings

SAT, AUG 22

Detroit at Cleveland – Detroit actually looks like a team that is turning the corner.  Of course when you lose every game, that corner is not hard to reach.  They will steal a win against a team that is having a major identity crisis at the moment.

Winner – Detroit Lions

Carolina at Miami – The Panthers looked horrid against the Giants, but the second teamers performed well.  Miami looked fairly solid.  I expect that the Dolphins will run their way to a win with the Panthers sitting all their stars.

Winner – Miami Dolphins

Pittsburgh at Washington - The Steelers are serious contenders this year, and the Redskins look pretty bad on paper.  The formula will hold true for this game at least.

Winner – Pittsburgh Steelers

Tampa Bay at Jacksonville – The Jaguars are going to struggle a bit this year, but it wont be because of their defense.  Look for some serious excitement out of the Jags on D.  This game in particular.

Winner – Jacksonville Jaguars

New Orleans at Houston – The Saints will go marching all over the Texans in this NFL Preseason matchup.  It will be ugly.

Winner – New Orleans Saints

Buffalo at Green Bay – Buffalo has had their fair share of games having played two already and both games were a bit of a disappointment.  Green Bay has to be ticked off about the whole Favre thing.  They will take it out on Buffalo.

Winner – Green Bay Packers

NY Giants at Chicago – Chicago is excited about seeing how they stack up against the Giants.  I think that if Jay Cutler just throws the ball and keeps his mouth shut, they will look pretty good.  Unfortunately, I don’t see that happening after the Giant’s pass rush is all over him.

Winner – NY Giants

Oakland at San Francisco – The Raiders might just win this one if they can keep their fists out of each other’s faces.

Winner – Oakland Raiders

San Diego at Arizona – The Chargers and the Cardinals are certainly going to be a fun game to watch.  The Chargers have so many weapons, and the Cardinals have the ultimate weapons on offense.  Don’t expect a lot of defense, folks.

Winner – San Diego Chargers

Denver at Seattle – The Broncos are really struggling as expected given the loss of all pro quarterback Jay Cutler, and they are still taking baby steps.  The Seahawks are going strong now that Matt is back full strength.  This one will be a blowout.

Winner – Seattle Seahawks

MON, AUG 24

NY Jets at Baltimore – The Jets will put on a nice show with their new quarterback Mark Sanchez.  Will he be able to look so good against that Raven’s defense though?  I don’t think so.  Not yet.

Winner – Baltimore Ravens

After all the drama and conjecture, Michael Vick ended up going someplace that few ever suspected that he would.  Coach Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles are going to have a new toy with Michael Vick.  The possibilities on the field are literally endless.  Consider this:

Imagine if you will the Eagles and the Cowboys in Philly, with the game going back and forth.  Suddenly, the Eagles bring out Vick, Westbrook, and Mcnabb in a three back wildcat.  Can you imagine trying to defend such a situation?  Three of the most dangerous players in recent NFL history, and two of them with the ability to throw the ball a mile?  Michael Vick could literally give the Eagles a serious option for trick plays.  Line up Vick with Westbrook, and then run option right or option left.  He could throw, be a decoy, run, or sneak out as a receiver.  The same for Westbrook.

The Eagles might have just stolen the NFC with this move.  I am not a huge Michael Vick fan, and was not even a real fan  before he did his deeds.  He used to kill my Panthers every season, so I could never like him.  But I will say this… He is a weapon and he will make the Eagles better.  It will make for a very interesting season if the Eagles use him properly.

Word on the street is that Reid is planning on just that.  Using Vick in creative ways is almost a must right now.  He has to get into football shape, and that should really open the floodgates for him from a playing standpoint.  Just hope that the Eagles are not snake bit because of it.

What a year in the NFC we are looking at this season.  It should be fun, ladies and gentlemen.

The NFC East has a long and storied history, so it seems appropriate that they be the first division that I predict.  NFL picks and predictions specializes in picking NFL football games, but we would be remiss without predicting the NFL’s season as a whole.  Since this is the case, I will be predicting each of the divisions day by day, and will finish it off with an overall pick for the year’s conferences and playoffs as well.

The NFC East is going to be very interesting this year.  No less than three of the four teams have a legitimate shot at winning the division, and the Redskins could even surprise if the stars align right.  You never know with the NFC East.  Here are the four teams, and the order I think they will finish in during the NFC regular season:

The Dallas Cowboys – Dallas is far from my favorite team and they are entering a year that will be interesting to watch.  They have some questions to be answered, such as their secondary and replacing the ever present Terrell Owens.  They also have one of the finest running back tandems in the league.  Tashard Choice, Marion Barber, and Felix Jones is a load for any team.  I think Dallas will  put it together this season, and Romo will have his finest season.  Dallas goes as the running game goes, and they can not seem to miss with this group.

The Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are the en vogue pick this year in the NFC East, but the truth is they are still a bit unpredictable.  The reason?  Superstar running back Brian Westbrook is breaking down.  He is just too fragile at this point to put them in the upper echelon.  If the Eagles get a ton of production from him, however, this might send the Eagles to the top.

The New York Giants - Plaxico leaving the Giants will hurt much more than Giant’s fans had hoped.  They are without a doubt a talented group, but they will be in trouble in the passing game.  There is always that chance that they bring in someone, or somebody steps up on the roster, but I do not see it happening.

The Washington Redskins – Washington still suffers from the quarterback position and Clinton Portis has got to slow down.  Portis amazes every year, and he certainly could do so again this season.  Campbell is just not going to take the Redskins any further than he already has.  He has some great qualities, but the inconsistant nature is killing the Skins.  Defense is suspect in DC this year as well.

Tom Brady

Well, my fantasy draft is over and I could not be more pleased.  I got pretty much everything that I wanted, including my target running backs and depth.  It looks like this is going to be a banner year for my fantasy football team.  Here is a look at the NFL players I drafted, along with some quick thoughts as to why I did:

Tom Brady - Brady is coming off major injury, so I am not sure what to expect.  I know that whatever the case he will be a quality option, and early reports are very good on him being fully recovered.  Also, I got him much cheaper than I thought I would.

DeAngelo Williams- This was my primary target for this draft as Williams is one of the better running  backs that still gets little respect.  I expect he will have another huge year.  (I sure hope so)

Brian Westbrook - Westbrook is also dropping in fantasy circles due to injury and age, and I got him for a cup of coffee.  Tons of upside here, and I have plenty of back up if he falters.  It is always good to have a couple of picks like this that could potentially put you over the top if they have comeback years.

Pierre Thomas - Speaking of back up, this kid looked awesome last year.  This year he should get lots of carries.

Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is going to be getting much better looks from Matt Cassell than he is used to.  I expect a huge year from him.

Vincent Jackson – Jackson is going to benefit from having a healthy LT on the field.  That will open up the passing lanes.

John Carlson – Carlson will break out this season as a fantasy star.  He was right on the edge last year, and this year Hasselback is healthy.

Titans D/ST - Even with the losses on defense, the Titans are still super strong.

Nate Kaeding – One of the best kickers in the NFL.

Chad Ochocinco – Ocho is far from one of my favorite players, but I had to take him when he dropped to the bottom of the barrell.  Again, a player that has tons of upside and a healthy Carson Palmer.

Julius Jones – Another fine back up running back just in case of emergency.  Jones could end up among the better running backs in the NFC.

Donnie Avery – High impact speedster over in St. Louis.  He had some head turning plays last year and I got him very cheap.  With Holt gone, he could blossom.

Matt Hasselbeck – Solid, dependable back up quarterback that might be due another great year.

Zach Miller – Back up tight end with plenty of upside.

Panthers D/ST – Good solid back up defense.

Chris Chambers – The steal of my draft.  Chambers finds ways to get into the end zone, and I expect this season will be no different.

Overall, my team is balanced and solid.  I see plenty of room for the wins to flow, and I hope this NFL fantasy football season is as good as I think it will be. I will update you each week on my progress throughout the NFL football season.

Tonight is my NFL fantasy football league draft and I am anxiously hoping to accomplish a few things.  I want this year’s team to be well rounded.  The draft is a head to head draft with only ten teams, so I assume that there will be plenty to choose from.  Still, it is important to get the jump on the league with a good NFL fantasy football draft.

Each week, along with my regular NFL picks and predictions I am planning to also let you experience my NFL fantasy league experience.  You can see the ups and downs, as well as the thinking that I put into my league.  For those that are new to NFL fantasy football, you might learn a few things.  For those that are not new to NFL fantasy football, you can laugh at me for kicks.  (It is always fun to play Monday morning quarterback.)

Going into the draft, I am hoping to draft two solid running backs with my first two picks.  I am hoping to get DeAngelo Williams rather cheaply.  And I want a balanced team that has depth.  Those are my three major goals.  I do not yet know what position I will be drafting in so it makes it hard to target much else.  I am very much a “get a good quarterback after your running back is settled”  kind of fantasy drafter.  I believe in the power of the running game.

Some players I would like to get (other than the obvious players):

DeAngelo Williams

Matt Ryan (If cheap)

Roy Williams (should be a steal after last year)

Steve Smith (an annual target for me)

I will post with my actual fantasy football team and the results tomorrow and let you know how I did.  Wish me luck NFL Football friends!

Every once in a while, some player that nobody expected goes bonkers and has a breakout season.  Sometimes it is an aging star, (see Kurt Warner) and sometimes it is the rookies.  More often than not it is those players that have been in the league a couple of seasons, and gotten their feet wet.  Maybe they are just finally getting their shot.  Whatever the case, NFL Sleepers are tough to guess.

Of course, that won’t stop me from trying….Here are five guys that I think will have better than expected years.

Dwayne Jarrett – This Carolina Panther has had a very uneventful first couple of years in the NFL.   The events he has had unfortunately have been fairly bad.  Still, he is the prototypical wide out in the NFL and he will have a great target opposite him in All World receiver Steve Smith.  Mushin Muhammed will be back as well to continue working with Jarrett. So why Jarrett?  Quite simply put, he made some huge catches in huge situations last season for the Panthers.  Delhomme is freshly signed, and he plays better when under contract.  And finally, Moose has great things to say about him.  Another key is the Panther running game is a beast so Jarrett should get a lot of balls slung to him in open spaces.  With his size, he could make some inroads.
Felix Jones -  Felix is kind of a given, and some might not call him a sleeper.  The reason I do is because he is sharing the backfield with two other guys that would likely start in other backfields.  Felix will be the man in Dallas this year, however.  He is going to be a huge star, and I am far from a Cowboy fan.  The kid is legit.  Watch the tapes.

Brady Quinn

Brady Quinn – Though Quinn has not got the starting job wrapped up by any means, he certainly is in control of his own destiny.  The kid is talented, and he has been brought along slowly.  That will not mean tons of Cleveland wins this season, but it will be enough to allow him to take possession of this team.  With his intangibles, the Browns star will be better than advertised.  That is saying alot considering he is heavily hyped.

Roy Williams – Sleeper?  After the dud he layed in Big D last season he most certainly is.  The guy is simply a huge talent that never quite fit in.  When you put that much talent in a wide out slot at number one, and then add a NFL quarterback that is no longer distracted by Jessica Simpson like Romo, good things have to start happening.  Roy will fill in nicely for Terrell Owens.

Phillip Rivers – Again, he is no typical sleeper.  The difference is that this year he has a healthy Gates to throw to.  This year, Rivers will step into the ranks of the mighty among the NFL quarterbacks.  He is already well respected and a proven winner, but his talent will get the respect it deserves this year.  He just might secure a Super Bowl.

When everybody’s fantasy football draft rolls around, it is not likely that tight ends will be at the top of everyone’s draft list.  That is logical considering even the best tight ends do not even come close to contributing what a quarterback or running back will provide.  Still, the 2009 NFL football season will have some tight ends that will challenge the wide receivers of the league.

This season, there will be at least five of them that you can expect to fill your fantasy scorecard week after week.  Here they are:

Jason Witten – Witten already was putting up pinball type numbers for the Dallas Cowboys before Terrell Owens left, and now he is going to be targeted even more.  Add to that the fact that the Cowboys have a super running attack and you start to see how Witten is set for a career year.

Dallas Clark -  Clark is another example of addition by subtraction.  Harrison is no longer there for Manning to throw to, and Clark should pay the dividends.  Reggie Wayne will still be the man, but Clark will likely be the primary number two in crunch time.

Antonio Gates - Gates is an unquestioned beast when he is healthy and it appears that he is finally there.  Offseason foot surgery solved a long standing problem and that probably means bad news for the rest of the AFC.  Phillip Rivers will be throwing to him early and often.

Kellen Winslow -  Winslow is set to finally fulfill the potential that he has been missing out on for years.  He should be near the top of your tight end list if for no other reason than he is sure to be a security for…..whoever is Tampa Bay’s quarterback.

Tony Gonzalez – Matching Gonzalez with Matt Ryan is a match made in heaven.  Not only will Gonzalez give Mattie Ice a new target, but he is the perfect compliment to the Atlanta offense.  They will feed Michael Turner, and then play action pass all day long.  Hello Tony Gonzalez!

Tony Romo is about to experience life without Terrell.  The former Dallas Cowboy All Pro is gone, and Romo may not yet realize just how good he was.  Make no mistake, Owens was a major distraction.  He will likely be addition by subtraction overall.  Still, the Cowboys have to replace double digit touchdowns somewhere, and Jason Witten can not do it by himself.

Who are the potential replacements?  Dallas did sign a great wide out in Roy Williams, but he disappointed a bit in his brief stint with the Cowboys.  Williams has not shown he can be the main man in the offense, but that could change with Owens gone.  Williams is a special talent.

Patrick Crayton is a great receiver in situations, but he is no number one man.  He makes the perfect second or third receiver, and will be effective in any role he is asked to fill.

The real wild card for the Cowboys receiving corp is going to be Miles Austin.  This guy can burn and will likely be asked to pick up a ton of slack.  Is he ready for that?  Maybe, and maybe not.  We will have to wait and see.  The guy has only 18 catches ….  ever.

Witten will be as reliable as ever, and will pick up some slack.  The problem with Witten is that Owens actually opened the lanes for him.  Nobody really knows that better than Witten, and he is likely going to miss Owens secretly if not openly.

The answer to whether the Cowboys can survive the after-Owens effect is still yet to be answered.  Knowing Jerry Jones, he just might swing a signing before all is said and done.